In 2013 we used the 2009 Black Saturday Fires 173 fatalities, to calculate the cost of the unchallenged ‘risk estimate’ for 2000 deaths. The government’s estimated costs on Black Saturday, of $4.4 billion, divided by 173, came to $25 million per death. Two government Ministers and the Emergency Management Commissioner, from the Australian State of Victoria, responded to our paper without refuting our numbers:

“At 2,000 deaths, the compensation cost to the Victorian Government…when combined with other costs like response, insurance, government expenditure, timber asset and inquiry etc, the total cost escalates to $50 billion (based on the Victorian Government’s Inquiry, Final Report Volume 1, page 243)”(Bushfire Death Trap -The Eltham Gateway, Packham & Malseed 2013, page 16 Extreme Bushfire Cost, Deaths, Trauma and Mental Health).  

In 2018 we informed Australia’s Prime Minister and many others, the reinsurer Lloyd’s of London, said the 2009 Black Saturday Fires cost a lot more than $4.4 billion. The professional figure was an estimated $7 billion. So the cost rose from $25 million to $40.5 million per death. Once again, many government people responded to our letter to the Prime Minister, without challenging these numbers:

“While our campaign had focused on the human death tolls, we believe the financial implications of the government’s own ’Predictive map’, were losses we estimated at $80 billion. When based on Mr Packham’s undisputed ‘risk estimate’ for human deaths, of ‘thousands’, we assumed the property losses escalate proportionally” (“mass murder” and the coverups, 2024, Chapter 17, page 106, $80 billion saved by an early wind change).

Cost, about $300 billion

So, with ‘losses escalating proportionally’, and a cost of $80 billion for 2000 deaths unchallenged by the government, 8000 deaths would cost $324 billion. For an independent second opinion, we asked one of the top four US Artificial Intelligence Apps: “If a bushfire did indeed kill 8000 people what would the cost be to the government, communities, insurance companies and the personal losses. A dollar figure”

The four page reply concluded: Grand Total, $260 – $305 billion AUD. Under a subheading, Scaling Factor, the App stated, “Costs don’t scale linearly due to capacity limits (e.g. fewer homes proportionally destroyed per death in a mega-event)”.